What MillerYes says — and what the record shows

No — and it isn't even their current number. The MillerYes FAQ says twice that the district estimates “about $2.30 per month over the eight-year referendum period.” The MillerYes home page says $1.88. The district dropped $2.30 on August 12, 2026, when it cut its planned 2027 rate from 41¢ to 38.5¢. Neither figure is an eight-year average: the district's $1.88 is its calculator's final-year increase divided by eight. Averaged across the same calculator's eight years it's $8.19 a month, and the full 57¢ rate costs about $19.43 a month on a $350,000 home. The arithmetic.

The programs may be the same; the price isn't. The rate goes from 37¢ to a maximum of 57¢, and the ballot authorizes up to $43,842,578 a year — roughly 75% more than the ~$25 million MillerYes says the referendum provides. If the goal is only to sustain today's programs, the ballot asks for far more room than that requires. Why the ceiling matters.

A ceiling is exactly what voters are approving. The plan lives on a webpage and in a board resolution; the ceiling lives on the ballot. The August 18, 2026 resolution fixes only 2027 at 38.5¢ and then limits each later year's increase to 4¢ — which reaches 57¢ by 2032. A future board can change a resolution. Only voters can change the ballot, and after November 3 they can't until 2034. The resolution, read closely.

The current referendum expires in December 2026 no matter how you vote. So the real comparison is this referendum versus no referendum, and that's the comparison Indiana law requires the ballot to print: about $955 a year more for a median $350,000 home. MillerYes also counts the SEA 1 state tax credit as a reason the cost is small — but that credit arrives whether or not this passes. The question is whether it stays with your household. What each number measures.

That's accurate, but it doesn't mean Noblesville is shortchanged. Indiana's formula adds money for districts with more low-income students, so every well-off district ranks near the bottom. In 2025 Noblesville actually received more state money per student than its neighbors: $7,460, versus Westfield $7,250, Carmel $7,211 and Hamilton Southeastern $7,036 (Indiana GPS). Hamilton Southeastern ranks in the bottom 2% (WFYI) and is asking its voters for 36¢, not 57¢. Full table.

Indiana's property-tax caps — 1% of assessed value for homes, 2% for farms and rentals, 3% for business — are in the state constitution to protect taxpayers (Indiana DLGF). Money not collected because of the caps stayed with Noblesville families, as voters intended. Calling it “lost” assumes the schools were owed it.

Every budget request comes with an “or else.” A NO vote doesn't end referendum funding forever — the district can return to voters with a smaller rate or a shorter term. And the district's own story on enrollment has shifted: in February 2026 it cited “a large decline in student enrollment” when cutting staff; in August it pointed to a study projecting “stable enrollment over the next decade” while asking for eight years. If nobody knows what 2034 looks like, that's an argument for a shorter term, not the longest one. Sources.

Yes: Noblesville voters approved operating referendums in 2010, 2016 and 2018 (sources). We don't dispute it. Approving past referendums at 37¢ isn't an argument for approving this one at up to 57¢.